Data availability eGon2037

[CarlosEpia]

In this issue, it will be documented which data is available in the new version of NEP English and NEP original in case it is decided to a create new scenario eGon2037 mainly based on the code already available for eGon2035.

[CarlosEpia]

From the scenario_parameters this information was used from NEP for eGon2035 and would be also required to eGon2037:
NEP original table 33 and text above (biomass is still not available):
"fuel_costs": {
"oil": 73.8, # [EUR/MWh]
"gas": 25.6, # [EUR/MWh]
"coal": 20.2, # [EUR/MWh]
"lignite": 4.0, # [EUR/MWh]
"nuclear": 1.7, # [EUR/MWh]
"biomass": 40, # Dummyvalue, ToDo: Find a suitable source
},
NEP original table 34
"co2_costs": 76.5, # [EUR/t_CO2]
NEP original table 35
"co2_emissions": { # Netzentwicklungsplan Strom 2035, Version 2021, 1. Entwurf, p. 40, table 8
"waste": 0.165, # [t_CO2/MW_th]
"lignite": 0.393, # [t_CO2/MW_th]
"gas": 0.201, # [t_CO2/MW_th]
"nuclear": 0.0, # [t_CO2/MW_th]
"oil": 0.288, # [t_CO2/MW_th]
"coal": 0.335, # [t_CO2/MW_th]
"other_non_renewable": 0.268, # [t_CO2/MW_th]
},

[CarlosEpia]

Overnight costs:
It is mentioned here and here that the cost for overhead HV transmission lines and transformers comes from the NEP. This NEP chapter 5.2.1 links this document regarding most of the overnight cost.
parameters["overnight_cost"] = {
"ac_ehv_overhead_line": 2.5e6
/ (
2
* parameters["electrical_parameters"]["ac_line_380kV"]["s_nom"]
), # [EUR/km/MW]
"ac_ehv_cable": 11.5e6
/ (
2
* parameters["electrical_parameters"]["ac_cable_380kV"][
"s_nom"
]
), # [EUR/km/MW]
"ac_hv_overhead_line": 0.06e6
/ parameters["electrical_parameters"]["ac_line_110kV"][
"s_nom"
], # [EUR/km/MW]
"ac_hv_cable": 0.8e6
/ parameters["electrical_parameters"]["ac_cable_110kV"][
"s_nom"
], # [EUR/km/MW]
"dc_overhead_line": 0.5e3, # [EUR/km/MW]
"dc_cable": 3.25e3, # [EUR/km/MW]
"dc_inverter": 0.3e6, # [EUR/MW]
"transformer_380_110": 17.33e3, # [EUR/MVA]
"transformer_380_220": 13.33e3, # [EUR/MVA]
"transformer_220_110": 17.5e3, # [EUR/MVA]
"battery inverter": read_costs(
costs, "battery inverter", "investment"
),
"battery storage": read_costs(
costs, "battery storage", "investment"
),
}

[CarlosEpia]

e-mobility:
There is a lot of information like this FfE study about electric mobility in the NEP 2023. I still don´t see exactly the data used below but in this document table 6 we see similar data.
if scenario == "eGon2035":
parameters = {
"motorized_individual_travel": {
"NEP C 2035": {
"ev_count": 15100000,
"bev_mini_share": 0.1589,
"bev_medium_share": 0.3533,
"bev_luxury_share": 0.1053,
"phev_mini_share": 0.0984,
"phev_medium_share": 0.2189,
"phev_luxury_share": 0.0652,
"model_parameters": {},
}
}
}

TODO: find out if this % are coming from NEP or which source. Check eGon final report.

[CarlosEpia]

Regarding scenario capacities all the installed capacities per scenario and carrier can be found here chapter 2.1.2 table 1 page 25 and page 52

[CarlosEpia]

Regarding Wind offshore, the information accuracy improved significantly and we can now know the connexion point of each one of the wind offshore parks. All information available in chapter 4

[CarlosEpia]

TODO: Compare installed capacities from 2035 vs 2037 (also scenarios)

[CarlosEpia]

Values for installed capacities different scenarios:

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Energieträger	Referenz	2037	2037	2037	2045	2045	2045		2019	2035	2035	2035	2040
	2020/2021	A	B	C	A	B	C			A	B	C	B
Kernenergie	4.1	0	0	0	0	0	0		8.1	0	0	0	0
Braunkohle	18.9	0	0	0	0	0	0		20.9	7.8	0	0	0
Steinkohle	19	0	0	0	0	0	0		22.6	0	0	0	0
Erdgas/Wasserstoff*	32.1	38.4	38.4	38.4	34.6	34.6	34.6		30	38.1	42.4	46.7	42.4
Öl	4.7	0	0	0	0	0	0		4.4	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.1
Pumpspeicher	9.8	12.2	12.2	12.2	12.2	12.2	12.2		9.8	10.2	10.2	10.2	10.2
sonstige konventionelle Erzeugung	4.3	1	1	1	1	1	1		4.3	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.7
onshore	56.1	158.2	158.2	161.6	160	160	180		53.3	81.5	86.8	90.9	88.8
offshore	7.8	50.5	58.5	58.5	70	70	70		7.5	28	30	34	40
Photovoltaik	59.3	345.4	345.4	345.4	400	400	445		49	110.2	117.8	120.1	125.8
Biomasse	9.5	4.5	4.5	4.5	2	2	2		8.3	6.8	7.5	8.7	8.2
Wasserkraft***	4.9	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3		4.8	5.6	5.6	5.6	5.6
sonstige	1.1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3	1.3
Summe regenerative Erzeugung	138.7	564.9	572.9	576.3	638.3	638.3	703.3		124.2	233.4	249	260.6	269.7
Summe	231.6	616.5	624.5	627.9	686.1	686.1	751.1		224.3	294.6	306.7	322.6	327.1

[CarlosEpia]

Absolute [GW] and relative difference in installed capacities for different scenarios:
**

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	2035A – 2037A	2035B – 2037B	2035C – 2037C
Kernenergie	0	0	0
Braunkohle	7.8 (100%)	0	0
Steinkohle	0	0	0
Erdgas	-0.3 (-0.7%)	4 (9.4%)	8.3 (17.7%)
Öl	1.3 (100%)	1.3 (100%)	1.3 (100%)
Pumpspeicher	-2 (-19.6%)	-2 (-19.6%)	-2 (-19.6%)
sonstige konventionelle Erzeugung	2.8 (73.6%)	2.8 (73.6%)	2.8 (73.6%)
Wind onshore	-76.7 (-94.1%)	-71.4 (-82.2%)	-70.7 (-77.7%)
Wind offshore	-22.5 (-80.3%)	-28.5 (-95%)	-24.5 (-72%)
Photovoltaik	-235.2 (-213.4%)	-227.6 (-193.2%)	-225.3 (-187.5%)
Biomasse	2.3 (33.8%)	3 (40%)	4.2 (48.2%)
Wasserkraft	0.3 (5.3%)	0.3 (5.3%)	0.3 (5.3%)
sonstige regenerative Erzeugung	0.3 (23%)	0.3 (23%)	0.3 (23%)
Summe regenerative Erzeugung	-331.5 (-142%)	-323.9 (-130%)	-315.7 (-121.1%)
Summe Erzeugung	-321.9 (-109.2%)	-317.8 (-103.6%)	-305.3 (-94.6%)

**

[CarlosEpia]

Fuel and CO2 costs:

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fuel_costs		2035	2037 ABC	Diff [%]	Note
oil	[EUR/MWh]	73.8	24.9	-66.3
gas	[EUR/MWh]	25.6	15.2	-40.6
coal	[EUR/MWh]	20.2	6.1	-69.8
lignite	[EUR/MWh]	4	6.5	62.5
nuclear	[EUR/MWh]	1.7	1.7	0.0
biomass	[EUR/MWh]	40	40	0.0	Dummyvalue
co2_cost
co2_costs	[EUR/t_CO2]	76.5	176.2	130.3
co2_emissions
waste	[t_CO2/MW_th]	0.165	0.165	0.0
lignite	[t_CO2/MW_th]	0.393	0.393	0.0
gas	[t_CO2/MW_th]	0.201	0.201	0.0
nuclear	[t_CO2/MW_th]	0	0	0.0
oil	[t_CO2/MW_th]	0.288	0.286	-0.7
coal	[t_CO2/MW_th]	0.335	0.377	12.5
other_non_renewable	[t_CO2/MW_th]	0.268		-100.0	No value found

[CarlosEpia]

Total demand comparison. The information was grouped differently in the 2 documents, so no all the values can be compared directly:

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	2035A	2035B	2035C	2037A	2037B	2037C	Diff A	Diff B	Diff C
Verarbeitendes Gewerbe	217.2	211.8	205.7	256	295.1	286	-38.8 (-17.8%)	-83.3 (-39.3%)	-80.3 (-39%)
Haushalt	121.5	118.5	115.1	134.4	157	166	-12.9 (-10.6%)	-38.5 (-32.4%)	-50.9 (-44.2%)
GHD	130.4	127.1	123.5	154.3	187.8	215.7	-23.9 (-18.3%)	-60.7 (-47.7%)	-92.2 (-74.6%)
Verkehr (ohne Elektromobilität)	16	16	16	13.6	21	21	2.4 (15%)	-5 (-31.2%)	-5 (-31.2%)
Umwandlungssektor (Kohle, Erdgas,Öl)	5.4	4.1	4.1				5.4 (100%)	4.1 (100%)	4.1 (100%)
Nettostromverbrauch zzgl. Verteilnetzverluste**	603.6	620.8	651.2	773.9	938.1	1002.3	-170.3 (-28.2%)	-317.3 (-51.1%)	-351.1 (-53.9%)

[ClaraBuettner]

eGon2035 bases on scenario C2035. Could you maybe also add comparisons from that scenario to A und B from the 2037 NEP?

[CarlosEpia]

eGon2035 bases on scenario C2035. Could you maybe also add comparisons from that scenario to A und B from the 2037 NEP?

Sure. Here it can be seen the difference between all the 2037 scenarios and 2035C for installed capacity and demand. For costs there is just one value per year.

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	2035C – 2037A	2035C – 2037B	2035C – 2037C
Kernenergie	0	0	0
Braunkohle	0	0	0
Steinkohle	0	0	0
Erdgas	8.3 (17.7%)	8.3 (17.7%)	8.3 (17.7%)
Öl	1.3 (100%)	1.3 (100%)	1.3 (100%)
Pumpspeicher	-2 (-19.6%)	-2 (-19.6%)	-2 (-19.6%)
sonstige konventionelle Erzeugung	2.8 (73.6%)	2.8 (73.6%)	2.8 (73.6%)
Wind onshore	-67.3 (-74%)	-67.3 (-74%)	-70.7 (-77.7%)
Wind offshore	-16.5 (-48.5%)	-24.5 (-72%)	-24.5 (-72%)
Photovoltaik	-225.3 (-187.5%)	-225.3 (-187.5%)	-225.3 (-187.5%)
Biomasse	4.2 (48.2%)	4.2 (48.2%)	4.2 (48.2%)
Wasserkraft	0.3 (5.3%)	0.3 (5.3%)	0.3 (5.3%)
sonstige regenerative Erzeugung	0.3 (23%)	0.3 (23%)	0.3 (23%)
Summe regenerative Erzeugung	-304.3 (-116.7%)	-312.3 (-119.8%)	-315.7 (-121.1%)
Summe Erzeugung	-293.9 (-91.1%)	-301.9 (-93.5%)	-305.3 (-94.6%)

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	2035A	2035B	2035C	2037A	2037B	2037C	2035C – 2037A	2035C – 2037B	2035C – 2037C
Verarbeitendes Gewerbe	217.2	211.8	205.7	256	295.1	286	-50.3 (-24.4%)	-89.4 (-43.4%)	-80.3 (-39%)
Haushalt	121.5	118.5	115.1	134.4	157	166	-19.3 (-16.7%)	-41.9 (-36.4%)	-50.9 (-44.2%)
GHD	130.4	127.1	123.5	154.3	187.8	215.7	-30.8 (-24.9%)	-64.3 (-52%)	-92.2 (-74.6%)
Verkehr (ohne Elektromobilität)	16	16	16	13.6	21	21	2.4 (15%)	-5 (-31.2%)	-5 (-31.2%)
Umwandlungssektor (Kohle, Erdgas,Öl)	5.4	4.1	4.1				4.1 (100%)	4.1 (100%)	4.1 (100%)
Nettostromverbrauch zzgl. Verteilnetzverluste**	603.6	620.8	651.2	773.9	938.1	1002.3	-122.7 (-18.8%)	-286.9 (-44%)	-351.1 (-53.9%)